PVC Raw Material Prices Surge Sharply in China Due To Geopolitical Conflicts And Supply-Demand Imbalance
PVC Raw Material Prices Surge Sharply in China Due to Geopolitical Conflicts and Supply-Demand Imbalance
Since March 2026, China's polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market has witnessed sharp fluctuations. Prices of core raw materials, ethylene and calcium carbide, have risen significantly, driving up PVC spot prices - with ethylene-based PVC up over 26% and calcium carbide-based PVC nearly 24%. This has placed substantial pressure on industry players, such as Vyluxa, a key enterprise specializing in awning materials and advertising cloth, which relies heavily on PVC as its core raw material.
The price surge is driven by multiple factors. For calcium carbide-based PVC (accounting for over 80% of China's PVC production), rising calcium carbide prices - caused by higher thermal coal costs and stricter environmental and safety controls in major producing areas - have pushed up production costs. The benchmark price of calcium carbide reached 2,486 yuan/ton on March 16, with some regions hitting 2,910 yuan/ton.
For ethylene-based PVC, the main pressure comes from volatile international crude oil prices. After the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil trade route. Brent crude once exceeded $118/barrel, driving ethylene prices in East China up by over 45% in two weeks, from 6,000 yuan/ton to 8,800-10,000 yuan/ton.
Tight supply has further amplified the price rise. Domestic PVC operating rate dropped to 78.49% in March due to enterprise maintenance, and new capacity in 2026 is minimal. Overseas, over 2 million tons of PVC capacity has been shut down, boosting China's PVC exports.
Mild recovery in demand also supports the price hike. Driven by domestic policies, the operating rate of PVC pipe and profile enterprises rose to 62% by the end of February. With India canceling relevant restrictions, China's PVC exports are expected to grow by 20% this year.
Analysts note that the price trend hinges on geopolitical tensions and crude oil movements: a de-escalation could trigger a price correction, while prolonged conflicts or stricter controls will keep prices elevated. For enterprises like Vyluxa, it is advisable to closely monitor market changes, optimize raw material procurement, and adjust production plans to mitigate risks from price volatility.
